[ Kosova-o ]

I would like to commment on an article by Todor Kondakov, secretary of the Bulgarian Geopolitical Society and editor-in-chief of the Bulgarian magazine Geopolitics, entitled The Kosovo Trap and published in the Global Politician on 10 January 2006. After summing up the state of the Kosovo status negotiations, T. Kondakov concludes with three arguments which I would like to question:

1. If Kosovo became independent, the independentists in other parts of the region (Bosnia-Herzegovina, and Kondakov forgets to quote Montenegro) or in the world (Armenia, Chechnya) would be strengthened in their cause.

First, the Bosnian Republika Srpska, which was created as a result of the Bosnian war, cannot be compared to Kosovo. Nor can Montenegro. Citizens of the Republika Srpska and of Montenegro have the same rights as their fellow citizens in Bosnia-Herzegovina and Serbia-Montenegro. If Kosovo was (or became again) a full part of Serbia-Montenegro, would the Kosovo-Albanians be granted equal rights not only in Kosovo, but in whole Serbia-Montenegro? No provisions of this kind are foreseen in the proposal of the Serbian platform for the Kosovo negotiations, presented on 9 January 2006 (cf. SEE Times).

2. If Kosovo became independent, the international community would leave, and Kosovo would become a safe-haven for organised crime groups and Islamists.

This argument does not hold because, in any case, the international community will not leave. On the contrary, if Kosovo became independent, the international presence might be reinforced, even if UN would hand over completely to the EU. As the EU considers the fight againt terrorism and organised crime as one of its priorities, Kondakov is surely wrong. Nevertheless, let us analyse the elements of his argument.

For Kondakov, radical Kosovar politicians are very closely linked to organised crime. This is not completely false, but they would be too smart to "legalize organised crime"! Cf. Kondakov: "The independence of this region would inevitably lead to reinforcement of the positions held by radical elements of Kosovar society; legalization of organized crime and the final transformation of Kosovo into a center for drug traffic and arms and white slave trade." This sounds very exaggerated... but he is probably right when he says: "It should be noted that at negotiations on the future status of the region, Kosovo is represented by people, who are closely connected with various Albanian criminal clans." However, he forgets who is sitting on the Serbian side!

Furthermore, he exploits the traditional cliche of Kosovo as a centre of Islamists. Cf. Kondakov: "granting independence to Kosovo would result in the withdrawal of most international institutions, which currently exercise control over the situation. Their place (as well as the already constructed infrastructure) will be taken over by training camps, storage facilities and bases of Islamic extremists." Right, islamism is rising in Kosovo, and Islamists succeed in recruiting people to fight in Iraq or other places. Nevertheless, it is not a generalized phenomenon (fortunately) and I think it is exaggerated to extend this to the Albanian diaspora, which Kondakov sees as a potential vehicle of terrorism in the world.

What is also very contestable is his argument about the "civilization incompatibility" of a Muslim Kosovo. Even if Kosovo were Muslim (which it is not), it would mean an enrichment for the EU (which has already a large Muslim population - for example, one 10th of the French population is Muslim) and surely not a "clash of civilizations".

3. An independent Kosovo would grant the US even more power and influence in Europe.

Well, this is an interesting argument. But I wonder if the US really needs that much more influence in Europe. I guess one of the reasons they have for being so active in the Balkans is their motivation to move on to other more "interesting" parts of the world (Caucasus, Middle East, Central Asia).

...

After reading such a one-dimensional article, I really wonder how the Global Politician can call itself "an independent magazine providing objective, in-depth analysis of events in the world today".

Anyway, I look forward to your comments!